Atmospheric Re-entry PredictionsSatellite Re-entry Tracker
Live countdown to the next predicted re-entry. Ground track map with impact corridor, decay timeline, perigee altitude charts, and proximity alerts — updated in real time from US Space Force TIP data.
Live Ground Track & Re-entry Corridor
Real-time ground track of the next object predicted to re-enter. The shaded corridor shows the estimated area where the object could re-enter, narrowing as the prediction window tightens.
Decay Timeline
Upcoming predicted re-entries from US Space Force TIP (Tracking and Impact Prediction) messages, plus recently confirmed re-entry events. Predictions narrow from days to hours as each object descends.
Is It Over Me?
Track the decaying object's distance from your location in real time. Get proximity alerts if the predicted re-entry corridor passes near you.
Perigee Altitude Decay
Historical perigee altitude for the headline object, computed from archived TLE data. The accelerating descent into denser atmosphere is clearly visible in the final days.
Atmospheric Drag vs Altitude
Drag force increases exponentially as altitude decreases. This visualisation shows why re-entry accelerates so dramatically in the final hours — each kilometre lower means significantly denser atmosphere.
Re-entry Statistics
Statistics compiled from confirmed re-entry data (US Space Force /decay class). Includes all tracked objects — the vast majority burn up completely. See Space Debris Statistics for broader context.
Re-entry Heatmap
Where confirmed re-entries have occurred recently, plotted by latitude and longitude. Most debris lands in the ocean — the denser clusters follow common orbital inclinations.
Notable Historical Re-entries
The vast majority of re-entries are routine and go unnoticed. These are the exceptions — large, high-profile events that made headlines.
What Survives Re-entry?
Most objects burn up completely during re-entry. Some materials survive the extreme heating (up to 1,600°C). Click each component to learn more.
Embed Re-entry Countdown
Can You See a Satellite Re-entry?
Yes — large re-entries can be spectacular. A satellite or rocket body burning up in the atmosphere looks like a slow-moving fireball that gradually breaks apart into multiple glowing fragments, leaving bright trails across the sky. Unlike meteors (which last 1–2 seconds), a re-entry event can last 30 seconds to several minutes.
When to look: Re-entries can happen at any time of day, but are only visible at night. The best viewing occurs at dawn or dusk when the sky is dark but the object is still sunlit at altitude. Check the countdown above — if a re-entry is predicted within a few hours, check whether the ground track passes near you.
What it looks like: A slow-moving bright object that fragments into multiple pieces, each leaving a glowing trail. The fragments spread apart over time and may flash or flare as different components disintegrate. Much slower and longer-lasting than a typical meteor or shooting star.
How to tell: Re-entries move horizontally across the sky (following the object's orbital path), while meteors typically enter at steep angles. Re-entries also last much longer — 30 seconds to 3+ minutes versus a meteor's brief flash.
For regular satellite spotting, see our ISS viewing guide or Starlink viewing guide. Use the pass predictor for personalised predictions.
About Satellite Re-entry
Re-entry occurs when an orbiting object loses enough altitude that it enters the denser layers of Earth's atmosphere and can no longer sustain orbit. At approximately 120–80 km altitude, atmospheric drag causes extreme heating — the object's surface can exceed 1,600°C — and most objects disintegrate completely.
Controlled vs Uncontrolled: Controlled re-entries use on-board propulsion to target a specific ocean area — usually the South Pacific Uninhabited Area near Point Nemo, the point on Earth furthest from any land. Uncontrolled re-entries occur when the object has no remaining propulsion capability, making the landing zone unpredictable until the final orbits.
How predictions work: The US Space Force (18th Space Defense Squadron) issues TIP (Tracking and Impact Prediction) messages for objects predicted to re-enter within the next 7 days. These predictions narrow from a ±days window to ±hours and eventually ±minutes as the object descends. Orbital Radar displays these TIP messages in real time.
What survives: Most objects burn up completely. Titanium alloys, stainless steel tanks, and carbon-carbon components have the highest survival rates. As a rough rule, 10–40% of a large object's mass may survive re-entry, though this varies widely. Learn more about space debris.
The number of re-entries is increasing as the orbital population grows — particularly with mega-constellations like Starlink routinely deorbiting satellites at end of life. Responsible deorbiting is an active area of space policy discussion.