Understanding Controlled Re-entry
Controlled vs Uncontrolled
A controlled re-entry is always preferred for objects large enough that significant fragments survive atmospheric heating. Operators fire thrusters to lower the orbit and steer the ground track over open ocean. An uncontrolled re-entry occurs when a defunct object has no remaining propulsion — its orbit decays due to atmospheric drag and it enters at a time and place that cannot be precisely predicted until the final hours. Notable uncontrolled re-entries include Chinese Long March 5B core stages, which have drawn international criticism for their unpredictable return paths over populated areas.
What Survives Re-entry?
Most spacecraft material burns up during re-entry due to extreme aerodynamic heating (temperatures exceeding 1,600°C). However, components made from titanium, stainless steel, and carbon fibre can survive to reach the surface. The casualty expectation metric estimates the probability of debris striking a person — current guidelines require this to be below 1 in 10,000 for each re-entry event. Learn more about what happens in our guide on what happens when satellites re-enter.